Can Madea's Boo 2 Kill Off Happy Death Day at the Box Office?

After earning more than five times its budget on opening weekend, the Blumhouse thrillerHappy Death Daywill have plenty of competition in its second frame, with the year’s most crowded field to date, five new movies opening in wide release. Among the newcomers are Lionsgate’s comedy sequelBoo 2! a Madea Halloween, Warner Bros.' disaster thrillerGeostorm, Sony’s biopicOnly the Brave, Universal’sThe Snowmanand PureFlix’sSame Kind of Different As Me. We’re projecting that writer-director-starTyler Perry’s sequel Boo 2will follow in its predecessor’s footsteps by taking the top box office spot in a crowded field, with $24.6 million.

The third frame in October has traditionally become the most crowded weekend of the year, which started in 2015, when four new movies hit theaters,The Last Witch Hunter,Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension,Rock the KasbahandJem and the Holograms, although only the first two movies were able to crack the top 10. The tradition continued last year when four more movies opened and all cracked thebox office top 10, lead byBoo! A Madea Halloween($28.5 million) and followed byJack Reacher: Never Look Back($22.8 million),Ouija: Origin of Evil($14 million) andKeeping Up With the Joneses($5.4 million). Each weekend was originally set to be even bigger though, with some movies shifting dates at the last minute, and this year is no exception, withThe Mountain Between Usmoving to October 6 andWar With Grandpamoving to July 11, 2025.

What was interesting about last year’s win forBoo! A Madea Halloweenis that it was able to win despite a horrific score on Rotten Tomatoes (21%) and a theater count (2,260) that was roughly 1,500 theaters behind the widest release that weekend,Jack Reacher: Never Look Back(3,780).Boo 2faces roughly the same daunting task, opening in approximately 2,250 theaters, whileOnly the Braveis slated to arrive in roughly 2,400 theaters and thedisaster thriller Geostormdebuting in more than 3,000 theaters. Universal’sThe Snowmanis slated to arrive in roughly 1,800 theaters andSame Kind of Different As Mewill debut in approximately 1,250 theaters. As of now, onlyThe Snowman(24% on Rotten Tomatoes) andOnly the Brave(100% on RT) have enough reviews for a TomatoMeter rating on RT.

We’re predicting that the top 5 will be rounded out byGeostormin second place with $18.5 million, followed by thetrue story adaptation Only the Bravein third with $17.2 million, last week’s box office winnerHappy Death Daydropping to fourth with $14.8 million andBlade Runner 2049in fifth with $8.7 million. The top 10 will likely be rounded out byThe Foreigner($6.1 million),The Snowman($5.6 million),Same Kind of Different as Me($4.2 million),IT($3.3 million) andThe Mountain Between Us($2.9 million). It will also be quite crowded in limited release as well, with Music Box Films' documentaryAida’s Secrets, Freestyle Releasing’s dramaThe Bachelors, The Orchard’s foreign filmBPM (Beats Per Minute), IFC’s documentaryDealt, Reliance Films' foreign movieGolmaal Again, Abramorama’s documentaryJane, A24’sThe Killing of the Sacred Deer, TriCoast Worldwide’s horror filmLet Her Out, Vertical Entertainment’s thrillersNever HereandThe Strange Ones, Well Go USA’s thrillerRV: Resurrected Victims, Gunpowder & Sky’s horror-comedyTragedy Girls, Roadside Attractions' comedyWonderstruckand The Orchard’s documentaryThe Work.

Looking ahead to next weekend, the month of October will come to a close with four more new movies arriving in wide release, Lionsgate’sJigsaw, the eighth entry in the iconicSaw franchise, Universal’sThank You For Your Service, Paramount’sSuburbiconand Open Road Films’All I See Is You. Also arriving in limited release, courtesy ofBox Office Mojo, is Vertical Entertainment’s comedyCrash Pad, Cohen Media Group’s dramaDaughter of the Nile, Strand’s music dramaFelicite, Dada Films' dramaGod’s Own Country, Cinedigm’s comedy/dramaThe Heyday of the Insensitive Bastards, Atlas Distribution’s dramaLet There be Light, Sony Pictures Classics' dramaNovitiateand Magnolia’s comedyThe Square. Take a look at our projections for the box office top 10 for the weekend of October 20, and check back on Sunday for the box office estimates.