Marvel brings its highly-anticipatedBlack Pantherto theaters this weekend, and while a mid-February release is a bit early for an MCU movie, the hype is just as big as any other Marvel movie, perhaps even bigger. The movie made headlines last week when it scored100% on Rotten Tomatoesafter the first wave of reviews come in, but it has come down to Earth a bit since then, with a 97% (106 Fresh reviews out of 109), and now the big question is can it actually break box office records this month? If it matches our projection of $136.4 million, then, yes, it can.
Back in January, box office analysts predicted anywhere between a $100 million and$120 million opening weekendforBlack Panther, but that was before the impressive 100% RT score and theextended Super Bowl TV spotwas released, which certainly helped add to the growing buzz swirling around the movie. It’s not uncommon for any movie ofBlack Panther’s stature to out-gross its box office projections, and if it does hit or exceed $136.4 million, it will break the all-time February opening weekend mark of $132.4 million set just two years ago by the R-ratedDeadpool. That movie was projected to open in the $50 million range, so early projections are often not the best barometer.
While the critics reviews have been quite amazing thus far,Black Pantherhas been making headlines for a much different reason as well, with a report from two weeks ago revealing that a group ofangry DC fanswere planning to sabotage the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. The Rotten Tomatoes website quickly responded, vowing to shut down this group calling itself “Down with Disney’s Treatment of Franchises and its Fanboys,” which has more than 3,700 members. As of now,Black Pantherhas a 94% “want to see” rating from fans, although it will be interesting to see if this group will be able to infiltrate the popular critic aggregator website.
Black Pantheris expected to debut in roughly 3,800 theaters this weekend, posting a huge advantage over its fellow newcomers, withAardman’s stop-motion cavemanmovieEarly Manexpected to arrive in just 2,400 theaters this weekend, while PureFlix’sSamsonis slated to debut in just 1,200 theaters. We’re predicting that the top 5 will be rounded out by last weekend’s winner,Fifty Shades Freed, dropping to second place with $14.2 million, withPeter Rabbitnipping close at its heels with $13.9 million in third place, followed byEarly Mandebuting in fourth place with $8.1 million andThe 15:17 to Parisdropping to fifth place with $6.2 million.
The top 10 is expected to be rounded out byJumanji: Welcome to the Jungle($5.9 million),The Greatest Showman($4.1 million),The Maze Runner: The Death Cure($3.3 million),Winchester($2.3 million) andThe Post($2 million). PureFlix’sSamsonmay have an outisde chance to crack the top 10, but with the movie debuting in 1,200 theaters, it seems unlikely. Also arriving in limited release this weekend is Reliance Entertainment’sAiyaary, FilmRise’sThe Boy Downstairs, WellGo USA’sDetective K: Secret of the Living DeadandThe Monkey King 3, Sony Pictures Classics’Loveless, Bleecker Street’sNostalgia, Film Movement’sOh Lucy!, Roadside Attractions’The Party, and Warner Bros.‘Detective Chinatown 2, which is expected to open in 100 theaters, although no theater counts were given for the other limited release titles.
Looking ahead to next weekend, three more movies hit theaters in wide release, Paramount’sAnnihilation, Warner Bros.‘Game Nightand Orion Pictures’Every Day. Also debuting in limited release is Screen Media’sCurvature, Hannover House’sDeath House, Parade Deck Films’Hannah, Epic Pictures’The Lodgers, Oscilloscope Pictures’November, Well Go USA’sOperation Red Sea, Gravitas Ventures’Survivors Guide to Prisonand The Orchard’sThe Young Karl Marx. Be sure to check back on Sunday for this weekend’s box office estimates, courtesy ofBox Office Mojo, but until then, take a look at the projections for the weekend of February 16.
